Living Knowledge · Confidence Timeline

dulaglutide improves HbA1c in type 2 diabetes

Scientific confidence changes as new graded, independent evidence accumulates. This timeline shows how the evidence for this claim has evolved — what changed, why it changed, and which scientific dimension moved.

Confidence
77%
Uncertainty 67%–88% (±10%)
Evidence coverage
Substantial72%
20 evidence families3 independent groupsRegulatory standing: approvedLast meaningful update: 12 Jun 2025
0%50%100%
supporting no-effect contradicting coverage-only— confidence┄ evidence coverage

What changed, and why

  • Quiet period31 Dec 2025 – 1 Aug 2026
    No confidence movement
    Coverage 75% → 72%

    6 evidence events retrieved. 6 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    75% → 75%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 75%.

  • Quiet period9 Apr 2025 – 9 Apr 2025
    No confidence movement
    Coverage 78% → 75%

    2 evidence events retrieved. 2 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • Coverage-only evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    82% → 78%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77% — 1 coverage-only item (on-topic, no readable direction) was retrieved but did not change it. Evidence coverage fell from 82% to 78%.

    • Coverage decreased
  • Quiet period1 Sep 2024 – 30 Oct 2024
    No confidence movement
    Coverage 86% → 82%

    3 evidence events retrieved. 3 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    85% → 86%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 86%.

  • Quiet period30 Mar 2024 – 12 Jun 2024
    No confidence movement
    Coverage 94% → 85%

    4 evidence events retrieved. 4 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    94% → 94%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 94%.

  • Quiet period24 May 2023 – 12 Jan 2024
    No confidence movement

    5 evidence events retrieved. 5 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    94% → 94%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 94%.

  • Quiet period30 Dec 2022 – 30 Dec 2022
    No confidence movement

    1 evidence event retrieved. 1 was coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    93% → 94%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 94%.

  • Quiet period11 Jun 2022 – 30 Sep 2022
    No confidence movement
    Coverage 100% → 93%

    3 evidence events retrieved. 3 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • Quiet period28 May 2021 – 21 Dec 2021
    No confidence movement

    4 evidence events retrieved. 4 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    77% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±10% → ±10%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence was unchanged at 77%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • Quiet period28 Dec 2020 – 9 Mar 2021
    No confidence movement

    3 evidence events retrieved. 3 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    76% → 77%
    Uncertainty
    ±11% → ±10%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 1 point to 77% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

    • Confidence increased
  • Quiet period18 Feb 2020 – 27 Feb 2020
    No confidence movement

    2 evidence events retrieved. 2 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    76% → 76%
    Uncertainty
    ±11% → ±11%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence was unchanged at 76%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    73% → 76%
    Uncertainty
    ±12% → ±11%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 3 points to 76% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Uncertainty narrowed from ±12% to ±11%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

    • Confidence increased
    • Uncertainty narrowed
  • Quiet period1 Aug 2018 – 21 Aug 2018
    No confidence movement

    2 evidence events retrieved. 2 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    71% → 73%
    Uncertainty
    ±13% → ±12%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 2 points to 73% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

    • Confidence increased

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    70% → 71%
    Uncertainty
    ±13% → ±13%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 1 point to 71% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • Quiet period28 Feb 2018 – 20 Apr 2018
    No confidence movement

    2 evidence events retrieved. 2 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    69% → 70%
    Uncertainty
    ±14% → ±13%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 1 point to 70% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • Quiet period26 Jun 2017 – 26 Jun 2017
    No confidence movement

    1 evidence event retrieved. 1 was coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    64% → 69%
    Uncertainty
    ±25% → ±14%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 5 points to 69% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Uncertainty narrowed from ±25% to ±14%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

    • Confidence increased
    • Uncertainty narrowed

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    62% → 64%
    Uncertainty
    ±26% → ±25%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 3 points to 64% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Uncertainty narrowed from ±26% to ±25%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

    • Confidence increased
    • Uncertainty narrowed

  • New supporting evidence

    Confidence
    61% → 62%
    Uncertainty
    ±26% → ±26%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 1 point to 62% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    54% → 61%
    Uncertainty
    ±29% → ±26%
    Coverage
    100% → 100%

    Confidence increased by 7 points to 61% after 1 independent supporting evidence family was incorporated. Uncertainty narrowed from ±29% to ±26%. Evidence coverage was unchanged at 100%.

    • Confidence increased
    • Uncertainty narrowed

  • New supporting evidence

    Major change
    Confidence
    0% → 54%
    Uncertainty
    ±45% → ±29%
    Coverage
    100%

    Confidence increased by 54 points to 54% after 2 independent supporting evidence families were incorporated. Uncertainty narrowed from ±45% to ±29%.

    • Confidence increased
    • Uncertainty narrowed
  • Regulatory eventSeparate axis

    Confidence was unchanged at 0%. 1 regulatory event was recorded on the separate regulatory-standing axis and did not change efficacy confidence.

  • Quiet period1 Dec 2011 – 1 Aug 2014
    No confidence movement

    5 evidence events retrieved. 5 were coverage-only (on-topic, no readable direction).

  • Coverage-only evidence

    Confidence
    0% → 0%
    Uncertainty
    ±45% → ±45%

    Confidence for this claim was first established at 0% from 1 coverage-only item (on-topic, no readable direction).

View all evidence · 66 items in the ledger
  • trialNCT01436201 — Effect of Dulaglutide (LY2189265) on the Pharmacokinetics of Digoxin ineutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT01432938 — The Effect of Dulaglutide (LY2189265) on the Pharmacokinetics and PharneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT01458210 — Effect of Dulaglutide (LY2189265) on Oral Contraceptive PharmacokinetineutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT01524770 — Comparative Pharmacokinetics of Dulaglutide After Administration Via aneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT01667900 — Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dulaglutide Dose in Healthy Chinese SubjeneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT01644500 — The Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly, Subcutaneous Dulaglutide MonotneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • regulatoryEMA — approved—Regulatory standing (separate axis) — never inflates evidential confidence.
  • trialNCT01648582 — The Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly, Subcutaneous Dulaglutide CompasupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Glycosylated Hemoglobin (HbA1c) at 26 Weeks': drug arm -1.73% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT01769378 — A Randomized, Parallel-Arm, Double-Blinded Study Comparing the Effect supportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Glycosylated Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) at 24 Weeks' (Baseline, 24 Weeks): drug -1.38% vs placebo -0.11% (Δ -1.27%, p<0.001).
  • trialNCT02152371 — A Randomized, Double-Blind Trial Comparing the Effect of Dulaglutide 1supportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline to 28 Weeks in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)' (Baseline, 28 Weeks): drug -1.44% vs placebo -0.67% (Δ -0.77%, p<.001).
  • trialNCT01621178 — A Randomized, Open-Label, Parallel-Arm Study Comparing the Effect of OsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)': drug arm -1.12% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT02597049 — A Randomized, Parallel-Arm, Double-Blind Study of Efficacy and Safety supportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) at 24 Weeks (Treatment-regimen Estimand)' (Baseline, Week 24): drug -1.34% vs placebo -0.54% (Δ -0.79%, p<.001).
  • trialNCT02648204 — Efficacy and Safety of Semaglutide Versus Dulaglutide as add-on to MetsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change in HbA1c': drug arm -1.11% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT02759107 — A Single- and Multiple-Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Subjects to InvneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT02973100 — A Phase 2, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, 18-Week Trial of InvestigsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)' (Baseline, Week 18): drug -1.23% vs placebo -0.44% (Δ -0.8%, p<.001).
  • trialNCT03315780 — A Phase 4 Study to Evaluate Glucodynamic Effects of Dulaglutide in JapneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT03824002 — Arterial Stiffness and Endothelial Function Indexes, Relationships WitneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT02750410 — A Phase 4 Study of Efficacy and Safety of Dulaglutide When Added to InsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)' (Baseline, Week 16): drug -1.45% vs placebo +0.06% (Δ -1.5%, p<0.001).
  • trialNCT03015220 — Safety and Efficacy of Oral Semaglutide Versus Dulaglutide Both in ComsupportsStructured CT.gov secondary outcome 'Change in HbA1c': drug arm -1.6% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT03131687 — A Phase 2 Study of Once-Weekly LY3298176 Compared With Placebo and DulneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT01394952 — The Effect of Dulaglutide on Major Cardiovascular Events in Patients WneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT02787551 — A 26-Week Randomized, Open-label, Active Controlled, Parallel-group, SsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Glycated Hemoglobin (HbA1c) to Week 26: Core Period': drug arm -0.38% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT03495102 — A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel Arm Study of the Efficacy and SafsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) From Baseline': drug arm -1.53% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT03590626 — Effect of Dulaglutide on Liver Fat in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes anneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT04189848 — A Trial to Complare the Injection Site Pain Experience of Semaglutide neutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT03684642 — A 56-week, Multicenter, Open-label, Active-controlled, Randomized StudsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline to Week 56 in HbA1c': drug arm -1.09% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT04143802 — A Multiple-Ascending Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT03668470 — Dulaglutide and Insulin MicrosecretiON in Type 1 Diabetes : A RandomizneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT04515576 — Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of MultipneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT03861052 — A Phase 3 Study of Tirzepatide Monotherapy Compared to Dulaglutide 0.7supportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)': drug arm -1.29% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT04466904 — A Multiple Dose Human Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic Study of IBI362neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT04829903 — Dulaglutide Versus Liraglutide in Obese Type 2 Diabetic Adolescents UsneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT03444142 — Effect of the Weekly Administration of Exenatide LAR or Dulaglutide onneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT04641312 — A Single Ascending Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PhneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT02963766 — A Randomized, Double-Blind Study With an Open-Label Extension ComparinsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (Pooled Doses) at Week 26' (Baseline, Week 26): drug -0.7% vs placebo +0.5% (Δ -1.3%, p<0.001).
  • trialNCT04591626 — A Randomized, Double-Blind Trial Comparing the Effect of the Addition supportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)' (Baseline, Week 28): drug -2.03% vs placebo -1.08% (Δ -0.95%, p<0.001).
  • trialNCT04965506 — A Randomized Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IBIneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05459285 — Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Immunogenicity of 14028 Injection Versus neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05048719 — A Phase 2 Study of Once-Daily LY3502970 Compared With Placebo and OnceneutralResults posted but no readable target outcome — coverage only.
  • trialNCT04867785 — A Phase 2 Study of Once-Weekly LY3437943 Compared With Placebo and DulsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)' (Baseline, 24 Weeks): drug -1.41% vs placebo -0.05% (Δ -1.3599999999999999%).
  • trialNCT04893148 — Efficacy and Safety of iGlarLixi Versus Insulin Glargine Plus DulaglutneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT04809220 — A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel Arm Study of the Efficacy and SafsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) at Week 26': drug arm -1.53% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT05516966 — A Phase 1, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo- and Positive-Controlled neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT06182891 — Department of Pharmacy, the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical UnivneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05377333 — Multiple Ascending Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PhneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05005741 — A Randomized Controlled, Open-label, Multi-center Study With 16-week BneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05407961 — A Phase 1b, 2-Part, Investigator- and Participant-Blind, Multiple-AsceneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05659537 — A 24-week Multicenter, Open-label, Single-arm Study to Evaluate SafetysupportsStructured CT.gov secondary outcome 'Mean Change in HbA1c From Baseline to Week 24': drug arm -1.41% (single-arm, no control).
  • trialNCT03648554 — A Multicentre Controlled and Randomized Study Assessing the Effect of neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05606913 — Efficacy and Safety of IBI362 Versus Dulaglutide as add-on to MetformineutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • paperEffects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists on upper endoscopy in diabetic and nondiabetic neutralOn-topic, but the abstract's conclusion/results state no clear weight-loss outcome (aim, adjacent outcome, or mechanism only).
  • paperGlucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Diabetic Osteopathy: Another Positive Effect of IncretneutralOn-topic, but the abstract's conclusion/results state no clear weight-loss outcome (aim, adjacent outcome, or mechanism only).
  • trialNCT05564039 — A Phase 4, Randomized, Open-Label, Active-Controlled Study to InvestigsupportsStructured CT.gov primary outcome 'Change From Baseline in HbA1c': drug arm -0.69% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • paperGLP-1 receptor agonist-induced diabetic ketoacidosis: A case report.neutralOn-topic, but the abstract's conclusion/results state no clear weight-loss outcome (aim, adjacent outcome, or mechanism only).
  • trialNCT05680129 — A Phase 3, Multi-center, Open-label, Randomized Study to Evaluate the neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT05218915 — Effect of Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonist in Combination withneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • paperOtolaryngologic Side Effects of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists.neutralOn-topic, but the abstract's conclusion/results state no clear weight-loss outcome (aim, adjacent outcome, or mechanism only).
  • paperEffects of GLP-1 Analogues and Agonists on the Gut Microbiota: A Systematic Review.neutralOn-topic, but the abstract's conclusion/results state no clear weight-loss outcome (aim, adjacent outcome, or mechanism only).
  • trialNCT06901648 — Efficacy and Safety of HS-20094, a Novel Dual GIP and GLP-1 Receptor AneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT04255433 — The Effect of Tirzepatide Versus Dulaglutide on Major Adverse CardiovasupportsStructured CT.gov secondary outcome 'Change From Baseline to 36 Months in Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)': drug arm -0.88% (vs an active comparator, not placebo).
  • trialNCT05140694 — A Randomized, Active-comparator Controlled, Parallel-group Study, to EneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT06235086 — A Multicenter, Randomized, Open-label, Controlled Phase 3 Trial of TG1neutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • paperGLP-1 and the cardiovascular system.neutralPreclinical/mechanistic evidence (animal / in-vitro / mechanism) — cannot establish a clinical weight-loss outcome.
  • trialNCT07109700 — A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo and Active Comparator-controlled PneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT06851962 — Open-label, Double-arm, Controlled, Randomized, Multicentre Clinical TneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
  • trialNCT07313813 — A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Fasting Duration and Temporary WithhneutralNo posted results — existence/phase are not direction.
View methodology and known limitations
Engine methodology v1.7.0. Methodology-version changes are recorded separately from new evidence; a change in engine version reinterprets existing evidence and is not a new scientific discovery.
  • Engine constants are calibrated against a small anchor set — coarse, not authoritative.
  • Evidence is skewed toward the drug's sponsor; genuinely independent replication is the honest ceiling.
  • Paper direction is extracted from abstracts; the hedged tail stays neutral (coverage, not confidence).
  • Regulatory approval is tracked on a separate axis and never inflates evidential confidence.
Computed 2026-08-05 · not medical advice.